Monthly Recap: November 2024

November 2024 was another busy and successful month. It will most likely be the last full month of trading in 2024 given the end of the year and holiday season approaching. I completed four sessions which produced a combined total of +2.07R. Here are the results of this month's trades:

• 4 November 2024
  • Trade 1: +1.22R
• 11 November 2024
  • Trade 2: -0.71R
  • Trade 3: -0.49R
  • Trade 4: +0.78R
• 18 November 2024:
  • No trades.
• 25 November 2024:
  • Trade 5: +1.27R

My first November trading session took place on the eve of election day in the USA. My trading details are as follows:

I went into this session not really knowing what to expect. Given the uncertainty I thought the markets would be "holding their breath" ahead of election results and we'd have a rather quiet session. But the S&P 500 moved more than I was expecting. The market opened with two candles down, followed by a staggered rally back up to form new highs on the day. I started my session just as price was beginning to pullback from these new highs.

Price slowly move sideways for a few candles and then tried to push up twice, failing both times. The highs of these candles formed a descending set of highs. This told me there was bearish pressure building in the candles while price was ticking away. But the trend on the way up wasn't particularly strong either. So, I thought after the sideways price actions we might see a major reversal back down to the lows of the day to form more of a trading range day. As price was forming lower lows and breaking out of the sideways pattern, I noticed there was not much upward volatility in the candle formation. Price was consistently pushing lower without much buying pressure coming in to reverse the situation.

I opened a trade short at Position 1 after the lows of the breakout signal Candle A were broken, targeting the area near the lows of the day. After a few candles my target was reached and I exited my trade. Price continued lower for a few more candles after reversing aggressively back up. I could have extracted a bit more from the trade but given the backdrop of uncertainty for the day I was hesitant to let it run. Ultimately, if I did extend the trade, my trailing stop would have taken me out at a very similar exit point in any case.

My second session took place on 11 November, and my results were as follows:

The S&P 500 opened the day by moving downward then reversing back up to start a ranging day. I began my session when this reversal was already underway. Price broke up higher and back above the 20 EMA with a large bullish candle after its reversal from the lows of the day. Immediately after that it pulled back to the break out level with a large bearish candle which was rejected by two subsequent bullish candles, the last one being signal Candle A. It was at this point that I thought we would head much higher and continue the move so I opened a trade long at Position 2. What I didn't see at the time was that I was buying close to the top of the trading range day when I should have been selling instead. I was too caught up and "FOMO" took over. I misanalysed the scenario without confirmation that we were going to move to new highs. I eventually realised my initial interpretation was incorrect, and cut my trade before it hit my stop. In fact, I remember looking at the chart and seeing the two long-wick rejection candles just after I entered my trade. It made me think how that would have been a great place to initiate a short... but I was long. It was at this point that I realised I was on the wrong side – a good lesson for future trades. Seeing contradicting signals while your trade is live is probably a sign to start taking exits.

Trade 3, on the other hand, was a result of true, accidental error. I had just come off the back of Trade 2 and my hand was hovering over my mouse. I was not concentrating and I mis-clicked my mouse... right over the "sell" button. As a result I opened a trade short – a trade that should not have been in the first place. At first it actually went my way (or, my mis-click's way) for a few ticks, which distracted me, but then it abruptly reversed. I should have closed the position immediately but I didn't and it cost me. I hung onto it for a few minutes, curious about what could happen. I eventually cut the trade but it was too late; price had moved quite a way towards my stop.

After the error (read: accident) of Trade 3, I was worked up and annoyed with myself. Firstly, I was annoyed that I had mis-clicked and opened a random trade. Secondly, I was annoyed that I didn't cut it sooner. But I wanted to move on from it so I continued my session. Shortly after exiting Trade 3 I opened a trade short (on purpose) at Position 4 after we rejected the 20 EMA and a previous minor high. I opened Trade 4 as the low of signal Candle B was broken. My target was the low of the day and the measured move of the previous swing downward. I was very tense while this trade was open given the first two loss-making trades of the day so I found it quite tough to sit through it. Eventually price hit my target but then continued much lower. It was a mentally tough session so I felt thankful for it to be over but there was definitely some room for improvement. I took it in my stride.

My third trading session on 18 November ended with no trades being taken since the signals I typically look for did not appear. This is a lesson in itself, and an important skill to learn and practice. Sometimes sitting on the side-lines can be the hardest but the best thing to do.

On 25 November, however, my session produced the following trade:

The S&P 500 gapped up on the open with two bullish candles before reversing and trending downward while making new daily lows. I started my session after the first leg down and while price was pulling back with a sideways trajectory. I watched a few candles form and make lower highs. After price rejected the level of the first pullback and pushed downward a second time, I anticipated an increased chance of a second leg down in the trend. After the low of signal Candle A was broken I opened a trade short at Position 5. If the bearish sell pressure continued, I expected the gap to the the previous session's high to close so I used this as my target.

Price initially moved slightly against me before continuing lower. It stalled half way down and formed a tight trading range for a few candles. Buyers and sellers alternated candle directions but in the end sellers won the battle and pushed prices lower. My trade target was hit just above the close of the gap and price continued lower before reversing up on the day. Although my process and outcome were both positive on the day I felt quite tense while the trade was live. I think the visible struggle for price to move lower added to the pressure I felt. I may have been a bit too focused with the outcome in the moment and not quite detached enough – something for me to work on.

That wraps up November 2024. As I said at the start, given the approaching holiday season it will most likely be my last full trading month for the year. I should be able to fit another two to three sessions in December but I'll be resting and on holiday for the last half of the month.

Until next time :)

~Alessandro